Under Armour (Buy after Crash)

 

Staying true to the name of his blog, I bought Under Armour @ 7.72 after it crashed last week. Since I am holding NKE, I am of course tracking the competitors such as UA, ONON and LULU, but previously still found NKE the most compelling buy. My view can (and should) change if there are sharp price changes which is what happened with UA. 

While I am short-term trading this, I wish UA well and here are my suggestions:

• Their announcement that they want to become a more 'premium' brand will probably work, especially in their apparel lines. There is a demand for "pro" or "performance" apparel lines that are one level above the entry level athletic apparel. 
• UA is so far behind in shoes I'm not sure if it wants to throw money into R&D to challenge the big guns in road & track running shoes. However, trail running shoes are a possibility because trail is not only about absolute speed (which requires a lot of R&D), but about protection, stability, comfort, and weather resistance. Premium trail running apparel is also a possibility. Nike ACG as a sub-brand hasn't honestly made much inroads and they are not a big sponsor presence for Golden Trails / UTMB.

Returning to my other US holdings NKE, MCD, and LLY, they are all green but the stock market is flatlining. On a valuation basis, I will continue to hold them. I even got some dividends from NKE but because of the 30% withholding tax, one doesn't buy US stocks for the dividend.

Amundi Index MSCI World S$ fund on POEMS

 The hot topic in the forums is "MoneyOwl by Temasek Trust" offering Amundi Index MSCI World S$ (as well the Amundi Global Bond and Amundi Emerging markets) via the POEMs platform. While it looks like a mouthful of jargon, the announcement is significant as it amounts to an undercutting of Endowus, Syfe, FSMOne, etc etc.

The key features of the MSCI World fund are the S$ denomination, so you don't have to change between S$ and US$ at unfavourable rates (obviously the fund manager has to change your S$ to buy the shares but one assumes they have better rates) and the 0.10% expense ratio. For reference, iShares MSCI World ETF IWDA has a 0.20% expense ratio and is denominated in US$, so you have to pay forex charges to switch into US$.

I have advised some (less IT and financially savvy) relatives to use their Poems to buy Lion Global All Seasons fund (0.48% expense ratio) which is relatively low cost, S$ denominated balanced fund that fortunately holds S&P500 so it benefited from the never-ending US market rally.  But I will be asking them to switch to Amundi.

I have a POEMS account as well so I will dump some money into their cash management account and set up an RSP to deduct from the cash management account. This is ideal for me as I was getting worried my IBKR account size was getting too large and I was looking for a good low cost alternative (SCB is my no.2 account, but it is not low cost because of the high forex charges).

[9/12 update]  Do note that the prospectus lists two funds: Amundi index MSCI World (direct replication) and Amundi MSCI World (synthetic).  The fund sold by Poems is Amundi Index MSCI World which is direct replication, so I have amended the title since the word 'index' makes all the difference.

[11/12 update] The POEMS RSP bug is fixed and the sales charge for RSP is 0% as it should be. Also it should be noted that since the fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and is direct replication, it does not receive favourable US withholding tax treatment that Ireland domiciled UCITS funds receive. However, for many, the upsides of this fund will outweigh the downsides.

Year-end Health & Fitness Report 2024

 

As I mentioned during in June, I will issue my investment portfolio report together with a "health report", since "health is wealth." One should not try to increase monetary wealth if it causes health and fitness to decline. 

I am pleased to note that I am on track with my fitness goals. I have no plans to aim for a VO2Max increase to elite (top 5%) levels as that might result in overtraining and injury.  Instead, I will just do what I am doing now, and we'll see where that takes me. I'm also happy to report that I managed to lose a little bit of weight since June 2024 and my BMI continues to be in the healthy range and a little further from the 23.0 overweight zone.

One thing that I have learnt in my current health journey is that the negativity surrounding ultra processed foods is totally justified. If you are going to spend money on health & fitness, you don't have to spend it on expensive and unnecessary gym memberships. Instead, you should purchase & consume whole foods with as little processing as possible.

Unfortunately for fitness enthusiasts, a lot of protein supplements fall into the borderline ultra-processed category, so if you can eat sashimi instead of a protein bar, that may well be better (Salmon sashimi is cheaper and has lower mercury content than tuna sashimi by the way - so I save my tuna sashimi consumption for my Japan holidays...) 

Year-end Portfolio Update 2024

 

This is my semi-annual portfolio update. As I am trying to reduce the number of counters that I hold, I do not expect many more additions to the list. I might possibly want to accumulate more Legal & General. Singtel has dropped to the medium category because I sold some at 3.33. If it drops below $3, I don't mind buying some more though. 

The HK market had a bit of a rally in 2024 and together with my regular RSP, 2800.HK has moved back to the large category.

My Gold Bars having finally moved into the medium category (based on spot price rather than bar resale price). I haven't bought gold for maybe 7-8 years, so this is just the result of gentle price appreciation. Finally Nike is something I have bought for short-term trading, but since I am a fan of Nike apparel, it is something that I may be buying and selling frequently in the course of the year.

Financial Independence & Term Insurance

 

There was a discussion in the forums about Term Insurance with one user "complaining" that the premiums increased significantly past age 62. Actually the premiums usually increase every 5 years by quite a bit, so by the time you hit age 60+, the premiums may more than tripled versus age 40.

The usual response is that at age 62, you should not have any more dependents who need to be 'protected' against your untimely death or TPD.

I have a term policy and since I have set up GIRO payment the premiums get auto-deducted so I haven't paid much attention to it.

But now, after thinking about it, it really seems that Term insurance is not particularly important to me now that I am financially independent with a steady stream of passive income. Furthermore, my cash and cash equivalent holdings exceed my term insurance coverage by quite a bit.  

I'll think about it some more, but I should set myself a to-do list to discontinue my term plan within the next few years.  After a few years, my passive income should have grown even further (and so will the cash-equivalent holdings), which means there is even less reason to have a term policy

Dividends Collected: Nov 2024

 

$200k reached for 2024. December is usually a quiet month so this is more or less the final amount plus or minus a couple of thousand.

Bought some shares to learn trading

After exiting my positions earlier in NKE and ZM, I had a bit of spare US$ lying around which was earmarked as tuition fees to help me learn trading. I have re-initiated trading positions in NKE, MCD and LLY and added an extra $15k to the tuition fee pool because I will probably need to average down.

November Strategy: HK/China and US stocks

 

The current market narrative is that Trump is bad for China and HK listed ETFs have been hit again, with 2800.HK dropping below $20. This amount of fear is attractive to a contrarian investor like myself. I bought 2000 2800.HK @ $19.83. This is in addition to my regular FSMOne RSP.

Separately, I have been accumulating MCD and NKE, two consumer stocks that were hit by short term losses (surely MCD's food poisoning incident doesn't affect the fundamentals?) and some FLCT REIT. I've also been topping up some of my UK stock holdings such as GSK and Pru.

That's a lot of individual stock purchases for someone who has resolved to buy more World ETFs. I should be resuming World ETF purchasing shortly, just that some individual stocks looked cheap and I couldn't resist....

Sold ZM @ $80

 Exited my position in ZM @ $80 for a US$1.7k profit. Doesn't move the needle much on my net worth, more of me trying to learn/practice trading with relatively small amounts but still large enough that it would be annoying to lose the money. 

ZM had a strong run-up recently I guess because of its "AI Assistant"? Anything with AI going up in price?

With companies like Amazon cancelling work from home, better to exit now.

US Post-election rally?

 

I bought more VWRD, VHYD, and NKE earlier this week. I also initiated a small position in McDonalds MCD as I wanted to gain exposure to the consumer sector in case there was a post-election rally. 

Based on what CNBC is saying, there is going to be a post-election rally.  However, it appears that China stocks will go down as market believes that China tariffs are incoming.

As I've said many times, even if US stocks appear expensive, never underestimate the power of the S&P500.

Dividends Collected: Oct 2024

 

Not many dividends paid out in October.

Bought NKE, Pru, GSK

 While the bulk of my buying has been ETFs, I still occasionally dabble in individual stocks.

I reinitiated a small position in NKE, 100 shares under $80, and prepared to average down further as I have high conviction that fair value >$80.

Topped up PRU. I feel Pru is undervalued, having been hit by negative China sentiment.

Topped up GSK. As the price has been flatlining, its an opportunity to continue to accumulate.

2025 Holiday Planning

 

SQ's Annual Time to Fly sale is back for travel period Jan to Sep 2025. I booked two short holidays to Japan and Australia. I was monitoring the pre-sale prices so that I can be 'sure' that the discounts are genuine and they appear to be. SG-Sydney is usually $4.4k but dropped to $3,688 so thats fine. Its an 8 hour flight so its long enough for me to fly Biz. Suites doesn't seem to be part of the sale so not worth it.

I am a regular visitor to Japan but I have never done the "Cherry Blossom" season. For 2025, I have decided to give it a shot with Economy Lite, and will see if I regret it (more people than cherry blossoms?). At least with Krisflyer Gold, I can do priority check-in and security clearance at Osaka KIX, as the economy queues are super long and painful during peak periods.

Remember to set aside some time and funds for 'self-care' activities, such as going on holiday. 

Updated my "Which Bank" Page

 I did some tidying up and updated my "Which Bank" page with this entry. I am PB status with 3 local banks. Its not that hard to retain PB status even if your funds fall below the specified amount. It doesn't cost the bank much to maintain your PB status since the benefits are minimal and why wouldn't they want to retain HNWI customers?

Here's the entry:

____________________________________________

 OCBC Premier Banking:  Visa Infinite Lifetime fee waiver. Reasonably attractive Premier savings account (but as soon as I post this, they will probably nerf the interest rate). Dragon Pass 2 free visits a year.

UOB Privilege Banking: Visa Signature lifetime fee waiver. Good UNI$ to Krisflyer Miles conversion. (I'm still new at the miles game)

SCB Priority Banking: Visa Infinite no lifetime waiver, instead you receive an SMS every year that your fee has been waived. As my spend on the card dropped to $0, I was not confident that the fee will be waived so I cancelled it. 

Priority Pass - I haven't bothered to ask for it since its supposed to be issued with the credit card which I have cancelled.

USD High Account with debit mastercard. Allows me to spend US$ online or when I visit the US. But not all places in US accept the card for some reason (i.e. I get declined/error with some merchants).

Most important feature is no minimum commission for stock trading. This makes it the 'best' PB of all the local banks for me.

FSM+ Diamond Tier: Not exactly a bank, but I treat the autosweep account as a savings account and park about $100k there since the interest rate is relatively attractive and the funds are immediately available for 

stock trading. 

FSMOne Black Debit Card. I'm not sure why they need to indicate the colour as part of the cardname, not as if Black is anything special (OCBC Premier even your ATM/Debit card is black...) but it is a useful way to spend excess cash in FSMOne without withdrawing.  I think it allows you to spend only your S$, which is why I didn't bother to apply for the card.

Lower inflation and rate cuts

The rate cuts are happening, but more importantly, weaker inflation has been reported in the Eurozone and the UK. I have started to deploy my excess U$ into iShares 0-1 Treasury  Bond ETF (IBTU) since there doesn't seem to be anywhere else to park the cash.  US$ stock prices are scary with new all time highs being reached every day it seems.

Short term US Treasuries seem safer than US equities at the moment and the current yield is reasonable with the website reporting YTM to be 4.6%. Furthermore, any price changes are likely to be to the upside rather than the downside.

However, as I have said in the past, I should not underestimate the US market, so I will continue regular DCA of VWRD / VUSD and other ETFs, but like many others, I wonder when is the next (inevitable) correction?

Finally, I'm more in holiday mode at the moment with a couple of short trips lined up, so I don't plan to do any day trading for the rest of the year, unless something exciting happens...

Flying Economy with Krisflyer Gold

 

I am a beginner when it comes to the miles game. I only have a small amount of work-related travel and the miles I earn are not enough to qualify for anything. However, after reaching FI, I have started to take business class flights so that I can get better sleep on the plane (allows for better quality workouts on landing, versus needing to get over jetlag before you exercise). My business class miles + work trip miles finally got me to Krisflyer Gold.

After taking my first economy class flight on Krisflyer Gold, I think there are advantages where the departing airport is not Changi. Changi is so efficient I don't even bother to do business class check-in - its faster to just self-service check-in and bag drop.

However, for flight from Kansai which is full of tourists and long queues. Krisflyer Gold turned out to be useful.  First of all, I could get past the extremely long economy check-in queue, and thereafter to get into the priority security queue and avoid yet another long queue. The JAL Sakura lounge was crowded (all the Star Alliance Gold members will go there) but not too bad. Boarding was nice as I could board early (after the PPS members) and get my stuff into the overhead luggage. The one area I did not take advantage of was the 40kg economy luggage allowance. I don't go overseas for shopping and I think my check-in luggage was under 10kg. On the other hand I can see that many Singaporeans love going to Japan to shop....

I should try to fly more SQ economy while I still have Krisflyer Gold, rather than try to requalify by flying business. After it expires, then maybe I will consider flying more business to quality again. I am looking forward to the SQ "Time to Fly" sale to book a few more short regional holidays.

Dividends Collected: Sep 2024

 

On target for 200k.

REITS: Capitaland Int Comm Trust Rights issue

 

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust held a rights offering of 56 units for every 1000 held. I applied for my allocation and for excess rights that was about 3x my allocation, thinking that was pretty optimistic. 

Surprisingly, the valid acceptances of the rights offering was pretty low at 82.0%. This is despite the strength of the Capitaland brand name and the quality of their portfolio. This meant that I got all the excess that I subscribed for.

As a result, my CICT position is large enough to qualify as a 'medium-sized' holding though I will only update my portfolio page at the end of the year.

REIT rally?

The 5-year chart of CLR ETF is informative. It shows just how far REITs have fallen and the recent rally is only a small recovery. If further FED rates cuts are not forthcoming (i.e. slower or smaller than market anticipates), there will still be some volatility. 

On the other hand, a value investor is more concerned with the fundamentals and whether people want to rent units in the buildings the REITs own, and whether customers (for retail/hospitality), went to visit those premises.

Even HK/China is rallying.

 As I have previously noted in my portfolio page, the China market crash downgraded my 2800.HK from 'large' to 'medium.' Given the huge uncertainty with China, I decided to continue to hold and add small amounts every month via the FSMOne RSP.

The patient RSP of China/HK ETFs may have finally borne fruit with the China/HK market finally making a noticeable upward move. The effect of the RSP was to lower my average buying price for the ETFs and thus make it easier to breakeven. If dividends are excluded, I still haven't broken even for 2801 and 2800 yet (green for 3010), but this week's rally helped me get closer to breakeven.

From the graph, the extreme correlation between 2800.HK and 2801.HK continues.

NKE pressed buy instead of sell (need more practice)

 

With the sudden rally of NKE which seemed to coincide with the announcement of a new CEO, I decided to exit my NKE position for the 2nd time with a plan to rebuy in the future if price dropped.  Good to close position early on Friday so that I can enjoy Friday night and the rest of the weekend.

Instead of keying in a sell order of $87, I keyed in a buy order of $87, which was promptly filled at $86.80. I immediately keyed in a correct sell order at $87 which fortunately was filled. So maybe my 'mistake' netted me a few extra dollars.

Sold some Singtel

 

3000 @ 3.33 has a nice ring to it. As I mentioned in my previous post, I have added a HK/China dividend ETF to my FSMOne RSP 3110.HK. In addition, I plan to deploy cash from Singtel into 3110.HK.

It's true many are saying that China/HK stocks are a deathtrap, but when it comes to dividend stocks, a lot of them are slow and steady businesses such as the banks which are essentially "Govt-linked companies." There hasn't been any regulator crackdowns on the big Chinese banks for good reasons. 

On the other hand, SIngtel's sudden rise to $3.33 may not be justified by fundamentals, and given the pretty sad price performance of the counter, I can probably rebuy these 3000 shares cheaper when it corrects.

Adding 3110 to my monthly RSP

 Currently I am losing money in HK/China ETFs 2800 and 2801. I am slightly green for my Asia ETF 3010. I have set up an RSP with FSMOne to buy 2800/2801/3010 every month in the hopes of averaging down. Fortunately with zero processing fee/comms, one can RSP small amounts.

One thing I am uncomfortable with is the high concentration of Tencent and Chinese tech in 2801.HK and to a lesser extent 2800.HK. Previously, I could diversify into Vanguards 2805.HK but that was delisted leaving me less choice.

Doing a portfolio review, I have decided to add Global X HSI High Dividend Yield ETF 3110.HK to my RSP. The ETF is doing ok and Global X seems to be staying in HK (always a big risk that US firms like Global X could exit HK market due to political reasons). As it doesn't hold Tencent, it does provide some diversification. TER is moderate at 0.68% and AUM is US$300m+. 

Risk

It's exposure to the property sector is 9% and financial sector is 34%. Since the financial sector is indirectly exposed to property, there's that risk as well. Therefore, my addition of the ETF for RSP is certainly not me going 'all in', but adding a small bit of RSP every month. I will continue to be disciplined about putting most of my free cash into World and S&P500 ETFs.

Sep Strategy: Getting ready for the holidays

After exiting NKE, I have been looking for an opportunity to continue learning more about trading. I felt that $78.40 was a reasonable entry point and I have re-initiated a small position with a view to averaging down and building up a position.

However, the holidays are approaching for me and I am going on a couple of trips in Oct/Nov. I don't go for holidays in Dec as that's usually the peak school holidays crowd. So I will probably have to put my investments in "auto-pilot" mode soon and not hold any trading positions before my vacations.

This will allow me to use my Krisflyer Gold for lounge access (its not PPS but better than nothing). Work-related travel + own holidays with the occasional business class ticket helps me just barely qualify. After I FIRE, I am not sure if I will earn enough miles to requalify - another benefit of staying employed? 😅

Hope everyone takes this opportunity to treat themselves to a nice year-end break!

Its not PPS, but at least better than nothing....

 

Dividends Collected: August 2024

 

Another $30k+ month. This time, its the turn of Singapore stocks like STI ETF and the banks to pay out.

$30k in CPF-OA but CPF Millionaire

 The title of this post sounds like a typical clickbait title used by influenzas so sorry about that, I couldn't resist 😹

I had a look at my CPF holdings  (CPF balances + CPF investments) and discovered that I am now a CPF Millionaire 💸💰

Stock market returns plus attractive T-bill interests rates helped to push my CPF holdings over the one million mark. My two biggest "investments" using CPF money are T-bills and STI ETF. I refunded my housing loan I think just before COVID, which was ok, because I could use the CPF money to buy STI ETF when it crashed below $3 during COVID.

SGX Portfolio Sector Composition

 

As the existing methods of scraping SGX price data for google sheets no longer works, I have been trying to figure out alternative ways of getting the valuation of my SG stocks. I tried entering them into stockscafe which is ok for the time being but there is a transaction limit for free accounts (i.e. I will not be able to add additional transactions as I have hit the limit), but for now, this is what my SG stock portfolio looks like. Basically, STI ETF, REITs+Capitaland, Three banks, Sembcorp+Comfort, and Singtel 😎

Cashed in NKE on Friday

I closed my NKE position last Friday. The object was to learn trading which is not only a good time to buy but also a good time to sell. Given the quick run-up in price and the weakness in the sector (Underarmour, Lulu, Onon were clearly not doing as wellas NKE), I decided this was a good time to take profit. So I netted myself US$2250. Not bad for a weeks' 'work.'

My next step is to see whether there is a re-entry opportunity to try to trade NKE again, or whether I should be looking at other counters.

Retirement Goals: v0.1 of my checklist

I was playing around with graphics design online and decided to create a Retirement Goals checklist using an online template as an experiment. This is only version 0.1 and I will continue to iterate and improve it, and at the same time, learn something about designing graphics.

When I was thinking of what my retirement goals were, I basically only had one financial goal, which is to ensure that passive income exceeds current and expected standard of living. I use the term 'expected' standard of living as my retirement standard of living may involve more travelling expenses versus my current standard of living.

On the other hand, since Health=Wealth and I really want to retire healthy and fit in order to enjoy retirement, I have a lot more health and wellness goals to track.

My most recent cholesterol test unfortunately had a result of 210 though previously, I was always under 200 (though admittedly too close to 200 for comfort). Based on diet changes, I'm pretty hopeful that my next test will be under 200, so for now, this is just 'pending'.

For stress levels, I just go by what my watch says, which is generally low stress, which is pretty much accurate. Obviously there are stressful situations in life, but the key is not to bring it home with you. If you go home after work to rest and relax and continue to be stressed, that is not a good thing.

 

August 2024 Strategy

 

Markets crashed hard on Monday, on what was essentially no news. CNBC of course offers explanation for all market movements but correlation is not causation

This was followed by a bounce back on Tuesday. Today (Wednesday), it seems that the market hasn't figured out whether to continue crashing or whether to continue rising as if nothing happened.

I did my DCA of VUSD on Monday, then proceeded to pick up some PRU, LGEN and NKE. Yes it seems that I am accumulating quite a bit of Nike. 

As influenzas are not really part of Nike's marketing strategy, you don't get a lot of positive press about Nike products. The youtube channels on running and fitness that I watch seem to be sponsored by certain brands who have adopted the 'influenza' strategy.  On the other hand, actions speak louder than words and for the numerous youtubers who document their training journey to Boston or London marathon, a lot of them wear Nike shoes though they don't announce the fact too loudly.

So I do like their products and I am long Nike, but I will set an exit price and sell once it is reached. I am also looking at Lululemon and OnOn, but from a value investing standpoint, Nike has better value metrics which Lulu and OnOn are supposed to be 'growth' stocks. But I am doubtful of 'growth' athleisure stocks. Basically, LuLu and OnOn are in the same position that UnderArmor was a few years ago and 'analysts' claiming it will continue to grow and grow.  I'm sure they will survive and find a niche, but to increase their growth? Doubtful.

And speaking of fitness, my App tells me that I have moved from top 15% to top 10% which is good. More importantly, since I'm no longer young, the app also measures training load so I can take care not to overtrain and risk injury. Slow and steady is the best.

SCB National Day SGX promo

SCB is holding its annual NDP week promo of 0% commission for BUY transactions on SGX listed stocks (the commission will be rebated). Seems like a good time to look at my SG portfolio and decide what I want to add (my focus is still on global ETFs). So far I've added some Capitaland 9CI. 

Dividends collected: July 2024

 

July is usually a slow month for dividends.

Nike Pegasus 40 (and Nike Stock) on sale

 

When it comes to buying sports equipment , one simple rule of thumb is wait for the new model to come out so that you can buy the old model at a steep discount.💸

With Nike Pegasus 41 just released in Singapore, I managed to pick up a Pegasus 40 in a nice colour for $65.94. Readers will know I managed to pick up a Pegasus 39 previously for $59 but in a not so nice colour.

At these prices, there is really no comparable running shoe from the other brands. 

How steep a discount actually depends on the brand. So far, I've only seen Nike offering 40% discounts for the immediate past model. If its a 40% discount for a model that is many generations ago, it means it has been sitting in a warehouse for many years and you don't know how long the shoe foam will last.

Nike Stock?

Finally, I wonder whether I should buy Nike stock. As the YTD chart shows, athletic apparel makers have seen pretty terrible stock price crashes YTD from 2Q24 onwards. The problem with Nike is that its P/E ratio is a bit high for my taste. Nevertheless, I've placed it on my watchlist and might initiate a position on Nike and maybe one other (to balance out). 

I don't know about Lululemon though, I have a vague impression it is yoga attire for ladies. I am not part of the crowd where people pay a lot of money for gym membership to 'dress up' and exercise, though I guess that would be a profitable market. 

Health update: Jul 2024

Since Health=Wealth and I just released my July 2024 portfolio review, I am also doing my July 2024 'Health & Fitness' review. No point reaching new heights of wealth without the health.

BMI

While I have made improvements, I am regrettably still overweight, hovering between BMI 23.0-23.1 (because weight varies throughout the day, BMI is a range).  Therefore, I am at moderate risk for obesity-related diseases. 

My target is to achieve a normal BMI of 22.8-22.9 which will take a bit of willpower and habit change to make it sustainable.

VO2 MAX

I am making good progress with VO2 Max, and my app tells me that I'm in the top 15% for my age and gender which sounds good but one must ask what is the reference population.

There's a high chance (since this is a US-based app) that the baseline could be the US population and according to the CDC, 40% of US adults are obese which is BMI >30.0! This means that the median US adult at the 50th percentile might still be overweight with BMI>25.0. Merely being 'above average' in such population is a very low bar.

Portfolio Update: Jul 2024 (Singtel and Santander!)

 

I had procrastinated doing a portfolio update because there was basically not much to report. Vodafone comes into the list as I had reviewed the portfolio and felt that it was worth upsizing my holding as it appeared cheap under £0.70 and there was some light at the end of the tunnel with the announcing of the halving of the dividend, which could only help in the long term given its debt load..

Singtel and Banco Santander had pretty decent 2024 YTD gains with Singtel even outperforming the S&P500. It took a long time, longer than Sembcorp, but Singtel has finally touched $3.00. The situation is still fluid and the day after writing this, it may drop as those who have been stuck in this counter for a long time may decide to take profits.

Your A$ and £ dividends are worth more

At the start of the year there were those who were fearful of losing money in foreign stocks because of their currency would depreciate against the S$

I was not one of those who believed that S$ could continuously appreciated against foreign currencies. Hence I was happy to continue to buying foreign stocks and REITs with foreign properties like Capitaland Ascott and Frasers Logistics & Comm Trust.

The recent change of government in the UK is not changing the momentum. Instead, the market seems to be bullish on the new Labour government, and the signs suggest that this will be a Labour government that is more 'centrist' than 'leftist'.

 

5th Portfolio Milestone reached: July 2024

  

It took 18 months and a very nice stock market rally, but I have finally reached my 5th portfolio milestone. In contrast, I reached my 4th portfolio milestone after 26 months which was also pretty good given that my portfolio had to spend time recovering from the COVID crash. A good reminder that time in market is critical for portfolio growth.

Dividends Collected: June 2024 (new record?)

 

Another record breaking month of collecting $30k+ dividends thanks to the Euro Financials all paying out this month: LLOY, SAN, ING, HSBC, AV, PRU. Is there some reason they all pay in the same month? I have crossed the $100k mark after 6 months. If this continues, it looks like it will be $200k by the end of the year. 

June update (boring update)

  Its the end of June and I don't actually have anything interesting to report. With the market at currently high levels, stocks look "expensive" so I have continued to add to VWRD, VHYD, WQDV since the last update. I also bought some LGEN which I had mentioned previously and I am thinking of getting some Prudential (PRU) via its HKSE listing. I currently have some PRU listed on LSE but I am reaching my UK estate duty limit soon.

PRU is another way to bet on a China/HK recovery and it also announced a share buyback.

If you look at the financial ratios/statement for LGEN you would notice a huge drop in earnings in 2023. The report explains that they had to make provisions for revised longevity assumptions - insurance companies may lose money if people live longer. A similar problem occurs with CPF Life. 

As I had US$650 spare cash in my IBKR account and someone on the internet recommended PLTR to me, I used that cash to buy 25 shares of PLTR. I have no idea what that is but since this is a price action/momentum play, I don't need to know I guess. Just sell if it goes up by 10%?

Portfolio Update?

I have not done a portfolio update (yet) for June 2024 since there are minimal changes. Maybe physical gold needs to be added thanks to the gold price rally. I read with interest AK/ASSI's recent blogpost where he shared his top holdings. Basically, he is highly concentrated in 3 Singapore banks, 3 REITs, and 2 stocks (Wilmar and Comfort DG). Not the way I would structure my investment portfolio but there are many ways to reach FIRE. 

Health=Wealth

Finally, since Health=Wealth, I am happy to see that I am making progress fitness-wise. My VO2max has been inching upwards with my watch saying I am in the top 20% for age and gender. 

The government website Healthub.sg says we need 150-300 minutes of aerobic exercise a week which seems pretty excessive in my view unless you want to be a competitive athlete. My weekly duration is well under 150 minutes a week. I think its more important to have 'quality minutes' of exercise and be productive and that is where smartwatches can help as they can provide data to help you assess whether your workout was productive and also to warn against overtraining. My workout quantity+intensity is at the bottom end of the optimal training load (another data point from my watch) so I have no worries about overtraining. 

My plan is to be fit and healthy, so that I can make the most of my time left, with energy to enjoy life and energy leftover to help others. 

June Strategy

With S&P500 constantly making new highs, it is tempting to look elsewhere for better value. However, I have stuck to my plan and have continued to DCA VWRD, VUSD, VHYD and WQDV for June 2024 as well as FSMOne RSP.

There was a European interest rate cut but Poweell seems to have implied that a US cut is not so soon. Overall, a rate cut will bring relief to REITs. Recently Mapletree announced a bond issue at 3.85% (12 years senior note) which tells you something since risk free 6mth T-bllls are about 3.7%

I am still interested in Frasers LCT and will probably pick up some (it went ex-Div at $0.035 so current price of $0.95 is roughly the same as $0.995 before ex-div).

As for foreign shares, I note that Legal & General (LGEN) stock price has been crashing. I have a small position at about £2 average buying price but felt that the stock was rather pricey compared to Aviva and Lloyds which is why I had steadily accumulated AV and LLOY but not LGEN.  Now that AV and LLOY have rallied, maybe LGEN is worth a second look. On the other hand, I am probably approaching the UK estate duty limit of £350k so I need to be more fussy about what UK stocks I buy.

 

Dividends Collected: May 2024

 

$30k+ Dividends for May 2024 with OCBC, UOB, DBS, Comfort Delgro all paying dividends in the same month!

Investing in above-average health.

I spent some money on a Garmin watch recently. I've always viewed spending on health and fitness as a good investment. One thing I like about the Garmin is the ability to download your Spotify running playlist. This means that I do not need to carry my phone with me when I run. It also has various training features which I am trying out as well.

One of my beliefs is that it is always good to be above average (or above median - if the distribution is normal they are close enough so I'll just say 'average').  More importantly, above average outcomes are usually achievable through a bit of hard work plus a little bit of smart work. Whereas extremely high performance is something that additionally requires good genes and/or luck.

For example, for CPF Life to pay off, you need to live beyond the median life expectancy, as those that die before the median are paying for those that die after the median age.

It is nice that Garmin thinks that I am above average when it comes to VO2 max (just barely in the blue zone though). I hope to improve it further, though my 'above average' philosophy doesn't require me to try to push VO2 max into the elite purple zone. I'm just happy to be above average and I don't plan to run a marathon....

On the other hand, when it comes to investing, I have probably failed to make above average returns in the long term (compared to MSCI World, though I have outperformed the rather useless STI index which is not that hard). 

 

IWDA $100 - more May strategy

 

As I had posted in Feb 2024, there were fair odds that IWDA would hit $100 and it has. Today is a 'red' day but IWDA is still marginally above $100. It could fall below $100 this week with some profit taking and that would be a good opportunity to accumulate.

Since I have been focusing a lot of Vanguard World and S&P500, I have not been accumulating much High Yield ETFs (VHYD and WQDV). I will use this week to accumulate more.

When it comes to individual stocks, I have one eye on SREITs but prices are not compelling at the moment. Frasers Logistics went X-dividend with a $0.035 dividend but fortunately, price is still holding up, closing at $0.995 today. 

What is interesting is China and HK. 2801 and 2800 are doing pretty well this year (after a disastrous 2023). I'm keeping up my some monthly RSP of 2801, 2800, and 3010, but might increase my RSP size just a little bit. I'm still pretty much in the red with these ETFs and this might be a good time to average down just a little bit more. But this will still be a small part of my cashflow deployment. Focus is still on World ETFs.

Earlier Post: BuyafterCrash: IWDA $100 in 2024?

May Strategy: Market still keeps on going up

Since my last post about 2 weeks ago, the market has continued to go up with the psychological Dow 40k barrier broken.

I bought 1 batch of VUSD in the last 2 weeks but there was an FSMOne RSP transaction but other than that haven't really been buying. I will continue my next round of monthly DCA in June. I am still considering whether to add a bit more 2800/2801.HK to get onboard a China rebound.

 

May Strategy: ETF + SG Reits

 

I was pleasantly surprised that my portfolio return managed to hit 10%+ in May 2024. May is supposedly a bad month for investing ("Sell in May and Go Away").  My original target for2024 was "high single digit", if the rally keeps on going, I may need to revise my end-2024 target to 15-20%.

It is obviously not going to be a straight line upwards. Markets always jump the gun when it comes to predicting interest rate cuts, so there should be a short correction when the market realises that the rate cut, while inevitable, is not as early as they would like it to be.

SG REITS

SG REITs have been doing terribly of late. My two target REITs are Frasers LCT & Capitaland Ascott. Many pundits and influenzas are saying buy REITs now. However, that is basically the same as saying that interest rates will be cut, which is something that seemingly the entire world already knows. So when rates are finally cut and REITs rise, they will point out their 'correct' stock calls and maybe try to sell you an investing course.

My policy is to buy either VWRD and VUSD the same day I decide to buy any SG REIT. This prevents me from dumping all my cash into SG REITS and allows to be compare maybe at the end of the year, which purchase did between, REIT or ETF....

Returns on regular DCA of STI ETF over 10 years

 

I came across this blog where the writer calculated the returns from diligently dollar cost averaging into the STI ETF over the 10 years. The results are not fantastic but 4% CAGR still beats CPF OA. 

Finance Opti: Is STI really the Super Terrible Index? My returns after investing 10 years

Its great that there are financial bloggers who produce substantive quality content as opposed to financial influenzas who try to stretch out publicly available information you can read in 1minute into multiple long form youtube videos.

As I have shared in this blog and in internet forums, my approach to buying STI ETF is to only buy in when it is below $3. This means that I bought during the GFC, 2016, and 2020 (Covid-19) crashes/corrections. My reason for buying is that it is a safe bet that STI will recover to >3000, and when I buy STI ETF at a discount, it means I am paying "less" for the yield that it offers.

I primarily use CPF-OA to buy STI ETF since there are various restrictions concerning what you can use CPF-OA for. With Endowus and other Robo-advisors today, perhaps the restrictions are not as bad as when I first started out of course.

I also include for reference, current year to date returns of STI vs S&P500:

STI vs S&P500 YTD - 8.8% vs 0.7%

Link to my 2017 blogpost: BuyafterCrash: STI 3,000: What's the plan?

Link to my 2020 STI ETF purchases: BuyafterCrash: Averaging down progress

Link to my 2016 STI ETF purchases: BuyafterCrash: Returns after regularly Investing in STI ETF in 2016