March 2026 crash strategy

 

Iran-related anxieties caused a market crash but you can always count on Trump to TACO and say things to soothe the market (insiders who have advance knowledge of what Trump is going to tweet will probably be very wealthy this year).

The problem of course is that you can't stop a war you started simply by making positive statements on twitter. So I still expect some downside, but not very much.

I continue to purchase VWRD and bought some FLCT today at $0.905, in order to use up some of the $50k+ refund I got from the Astrea VI PE Bond. My Astrea VI yield on cost was 4.4%+ so it was really good value. While the short-sighted were celebrating getting 3%+ on 6-mth T-bills (which rolled over at 2%), those with a medium term perspective would have realised that Astrea VI at the midpoint of its maturity with a half-filled reserves account and 4.4%+ yield, was a way better invesment.

I also started an RSP of the LSE-listed JP Morgan Global Equities Premium Income Active ETF (JEPG).  It has a reasonable management fee of 0.35% for an active ETF and generates income by holding stocks and using an options overlay. As an Income ETF, it holds primarily value stocks rather than the Mag7. But interesting, it also has counters like Berkshire (0 dividend) in its top 10 holdings. Presumably it holds Berkshire and earns from writing Berkshire options.

I am not supposed to increase the number of counters I hold but technically since Astrea VI was redeemed, I can add one new counter to my portfolio. 😀

First experience doing RSP of LSE-listed ETF on FSMOne

 

This post documents my first experience with doing an RSP of an LSE-listed ETF on FSMOne

• $0 fees
• The ETF opened at $356.60, so price of $356.90 I suppose is reasonable. It closed eventually at $357.75
• Exchange rate was 1.27099.  The opening and closing rates that day were 1.2663 and 1.2662. So the forex premium is an estimated 0.37%

This FX premium is consistent with my experience with HK$ ETFs. It seems that the forex premium if you use S$ to pay for the RSP and ask FSMOne to convert is always a little bit higher. If you convert the US$ or HK$ yourself, the forex premium is closer to 0.25%. 

But overall, 0.37% forex premium is still much better than SCB's forex premium (SCB used to be better but now its like 0.7% until you hit silver tier when it drops to 0.4%).

Michael Burry on the Hong Kong Stock Market

 

Someone in HWZ shared Michael Burry's (The Big Short) post on the Hang Seng Index. 

Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy - by Michael Burry

When I clicked on it, I could read the whole article, but now it seems that most of it is behind a paywall. Anyway, to summarise, the point appears to be that even though the HSI crashed due to various reasons including political ones, the fundamentals and more importantly earnings of HSI companies remained sound and the HSI kept on paying good dividends throughout the crash.

Therefore, a value investor's investment thesis would still be intact, subject to the caveat that the market can remain irrational for longer than an investor can remain liquid. But assuming that you did not use leverage, you could just keep calm and collect dividends.

Comparison

 

Some say comparison is the thief of joy, but sometimes you are discovering someone whose numbers are so close to yours, you wonder "are you me?" The famous sunglass wearing blogger just posted his 2025 CPF balance and passive income and the figures are really close to mine. So my reaction was one of amusement and whimsy. So without further ado, here's a comparison table for entertainment purposes.

On a more serious finance-related note, I see that he will be choosing ERS since he is turning 55. It will eventually be my turn to choose. Currently, my thinking is to go for FRS and to invest the difference between FRS and ERS. Based on my parents' health and genes which I have inherited, I should be mentally active for 20++ years so no problem doing DIY investment.  DIY investing will also keep my mind active and help fight against dementia. 

After 20 years (age 75), I should hopefully have 4x my investment, in which case, if I put that sum into some high-yielding fund, I should be getting a lot more than FRS payouts.

Dividends Collected: Feb 2026

 

SG stocks hardly any dividends in Jan, and curiously US dividends, hardly any in Feb. The good news is that for the first 2 months of the year, dividends are higher year-on-year vs 2024 and 205.

Comfort Delgro and Capitaland Ascott Update

In 2022, I posted that I was still buying Capitaland Ascott Residence Trust and Comfort Delgro and was looking forward to an EPS recovery:  

BuyafterCrash: Singapore Stocks I am still buying

 

ComfortDelgro's EPS got hit bad by COVID.

Fast forward 3 years later to 2025, we can see CDG's EPS continuing to recover with the latest being an EPS of 10.43. This is still lower than pre-COVID. If you are an optimist it just means that CDG still has further room to grow its EPS to pre-COVID levels. If you are a pessimist it means that CDG's management hasn't executed its strategy as well as it should have as we should be back to pre-COVID EPS by now (especially with inflation baked-in).

Finally, it's good to see CDG stating its dividend policy, which is 80% of PATMI. A reasonable number, given that it is a cash rich company. I am happy with my current holdings of CDG and won't buy more. My plan is just to hold it for the long term and collect dividend.

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As for Capitaland Ascott, I can't find a handy table, but the earnings per stapled security (diluted) are:

2019: 8.99 cents

2020: -7.69 cents

2021: 9.32 cents

2022: 6.25 cents

2023: 6.07 cents

2024: 5.95 cents

2025: 8.07 cents

So ART is slowly recovering as well, but still not back to pre-COVID levels.

Buy After Crash Strategy

 

I started my blog in 2016 and named it Buy After Crash, because that was how I started my investing journey around the time of the GFC. 

During GFC and again in 2016 and again during COVID 2020, STI was also under 3,000 due to a 'crash', and as I documented in my blog, I was happy to buy STI as long as it was under 3,000.

Recently, in the influenza sphere, there appears to be some influenzas creating a "fake dispute" about buying after crash strategy. I don't follow these influenzas so I depend on blogs I actually read to keep me updated:

Investment Income for Life: Mr Loo Strikes Back At Kelvin Learns Investing and Boon Tee on Crash Buying Strategy!

Finance Opti: Lump Sum vs. DCA vs. Crash Buying??

Since my blog is named Buy After Crash, I think I should weigh in with my strategy. Its so simple there is no need for multiple long-form youtube videos to describe it. I guess thats why you need to create a "disagreement" so that there is material for a youtube long-form video.

The starting point for me is to have the correct Asset Allocation that matches your risk profile. As a simplification, we could divide assets into equities and cash/near-cash/investment grade fixed income. It could be 50/50, 70/30 or 100/0. I think I'm around 80/20 or higher. 

With the correct asset allocation, you sleep well at night because your portfolio has a certain amount of risk that is aligned with your risk profile. Assuming your risk profile remains constant, portfolio risk could go up or down.

When markets crash and equities become cheaper, I feel that the risk of holding more equities goes down 

(1) From a valuation perspective. There is more upside from undervalued stocks.

(2) From a historical perspective, as the long term market trend is up.

This means that even if my risk profile is the same, I should be willing to buy more equities during a crash, over and above mere 'rebalancing.' So every time the market corrects, I tap on my cash/near-cash/fixed income portfolio of my portfolio to buy more equities.

If you are 50/50 or 80/20, it's simple to tap on your spare cash to buy equities. If you are 100/0, this means you have to use leverage/margin to buy more equities, which has a cost and the market may be irrational for longer than you are solvent. So crash buying when you have a 100/0 allocation is still possible, but perhaps more difficult. 

I wonder if those influenzas who like to discuss crash buying have actually showed how they invested/traded during various crashes. My blog documents what I did during the 2016 and 2020 crashes (and also Trump's liberation day not-really-a-crash). This is for my reference so I can learn how to improve. Like I posted before, I identified one weakness in buying only during the downward phase of the crash and not buying during the early recovery phase (because of the fear of dead cat bounce). But Historically, prices during dead cat bounces were still attractive and you would have still made money buying during dead cat bounces.