- $0 fees
- The ETF opened at $356.60, so price of $356.90 I suppose is reasonable. It closed eventually at $357.75
- Exchange rate was 1.27099. The opening and closing rates that day were 1.2663 and 1.2662. So the forex premium is an estimated 0.37%
Blog started 2016. Achieved Financial Independence in 2021. Focusing on Spiritual, Mental, Physical and Financial Fitness. Personal journal to record investment decisions for my own reference and in future, for my loved ones who will take over the portfolio. Advertising free as I'm not seeking hits or ad revenue. On the internet anyone can have a pretend portfolio, whether you think this blog is fake or real, doesn't bother me. :)
Someone in HWZ shared Michael Burry's (The Big Short) post on the Hang Seng Index.
Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy - by Michael Burry
When I clicked on it, I could read the whole article, but now it seems that most of it is behind a paywall. Anyway, to summarise, the point appears to be that even though the HSI crashed due to various reasons including political ones, the fundamentals and more importantly earnings of HSI companies remained sound and the HSI kept on paying good dividends throughout the crash.
Therefore, a value investor's investment thesis would still be intact, subject to the caveat that the market can remain irrational for longer than an investor can remain liquid. But assuming that you did not use leverage, you could just keep calm and collect dividends.
On a more serious finance-related note, I see that he will be choosing ERS since he is turning 55. It will eventually be my turn to choose. Currently, my thinking is to go for FRS and to invest the difference between FRS and ERS. Based on my parents' health and genes which I have inherited, I should be mentally active for 20++ years so no problem doing DIY investment. DIY investing will also keep my mind active and help fight against dementia.
After 20 years (age 75), I should hopefully have 4x my investment, in which case, if I put that sum into some high-yielding fund, I should be getting a lot more than FRS payouts.
In 2022, I posted that I was still buying Capitaland Ascott Residence Trust and Comfort Delgro and was looking forward to an EPS recovery:
BuyafterCrash: Singapore Stocks I am still buying
ComfortDelgro's EPS got hit bad by COVID.
Fast forward 3 years later to 2025, we can see CDG's EPS continuing to recover with the latest being an EPS of 10.43. This is still lower than pre-COVID. If you are an optimist it just means that CDG still has further room to grow its EPS to pre-COVID levels. If you are a pessimist it means that CDG's management hasn't executed its strategy as well as it should have as we should be back to pre-COVID EPS by now (especially with inflation baked-in).
Finally, it's good to see CDG stating its dividend policy, which is 80% of PATMI. A reasonable number, given that it is a cash rich company. I am happy with my current holdings of CDG and won't buy more. My plan is just to hold it for the long term and collect dividend.
I started my blog in 2016 and named it Buy After Crash, because that was how I started my investing journey around the time of the GFC.
During GFC and again in 2016 and again during COVID 2020, STI was also under 3,000 due to a 'crash', and as I documented in my blog, I was happy to buy STI as long as it was under 3,000.
Recently, in the influenza sphere, there appears to be some influenzas creating a "fake dispute" about buying after crash strategy. I don't follow these influenzas so I depend on blogs I actually read to keep me updated:
Finance Opti: Lump Sum vs. DCA vs. Crash Buying??
Since my blog is named Buy After Crash, I think I should weigh in with my strategy. Its so simple there is no need for multiple long-form youtube videos to describe it. I guess thats why you need to create a "disagreement" so that there is material for a youtube long-form video.
The starting point for me is to have the correct Asset Allocation that matches your risk profile. As a simplification, we could divide assets into equities and cash/near-cash/investment grade fixed income. It could be 50/50, 70/30 or 100/0. I think I'm around 80/20 or higher.
With the correct asset allocation, you sleep well at night because your portfolio has a certain amount of risk that is aligned with your risk profile. Assuming your risk profile remains constant, portfolio risk could go up or down.
When markets crash and equities become cheaper, I feel that the risk of holding more equities goes down
(1) From a valuation perspective. There is more upside from undervalued stocks.
(2) From a historical perspective, as the long term market trend is up.
This means that even if my risk profile is the same, I should be willing to buy more equities during a crash, over and above mere 'rebalancing.' So every time the market corrects, I tap on my cash/near-cash/fixed income portfolio of my portfolio to buy more equities.
If you are 50/50 or 80/20, it's simple to tap on your spare cash to buy equities. If you are 100/0, this means you have to use leverage/margin to buy more equities, which has a cost and the market may be irrational for longer than you are solvent. So crash buying when you have a 100/0 allocation is still possible, but perhaps more difficult.
I wonder if those influenzas who like to discuss crash buying have actually showed how they invested/traded during various crashes. My blog documents what I did during the 2016 and 2020 crashes (and also Trump's liberation day not-really-a-crash). This is for my reference so I can learn how to improve. Like I posted before, I identified one weakness in buying only during the downward phase of the crash and not buying during the early recovery phase (because of the fear of dead cat bounce). But Historically, prices during dead cat bounces were still attractive and you would have still made money buying during dead cat bounces.