Wednesday, 6 May 2026

Experimental Unit Trust Portfolio


While I have been helping my relatives set up Poems accounts to invest in Amundi unit trusts, I have not done so myself because my main UT platform is FSMOne which doesn't sell Amundi funds. Also, my main method of investing in index funds is via LSE-listed ETFs which are technically tax-advantaged because VUSD has 15% US withholding tax and LSPU has 0% WHT (because its synthetic). Amundi USA, being a physical replication unit trust, is subject to 30% WHT at source (it doesn't matter if it is IE domiciled or not - also note that Amundi also has a synthetic USA fund but that is not sold by Poems).

In April, since I had some spare cash to deploy, I decided to put $20k into an experimental Poems portfolio comprising Amundi funds and to see how it goes. As you can see from the screenshot above, its 80% developed markets and 20% EM, which is 'technically' overweighting EM compared to MSCI All World, but I've always felt that EM is under-represented in the All World Index.

 

Friday, 1 May 2026

Dividends Collected: April 2026

 


SG Companies usually don't pay dividends in April so foreign stocks do the heavy lifting this month. year-to-date I am a tiny bit ahead of dividends collected in 2024 which is a good sign.

Thursday, 30 April 2026

Portfolio Performance April 2026

 


There was a big 11% rally in the S&P 500 for the month of April (technically started on 31 March). This momentum was so great that it overtook my portfolio which is now trailing the S&P500 by 0.7%. However, I am grateful that my portfolio climbed out of the red and is positive. More importantly, I continued buying while my portfolio was red, because its always good to buy stocks when they are cheap.

This shows that you should never underestimate the S&P500, at least 50% of my fresh purchases are either S&P500 or FTSE World (70%+ USA). I'm glad to check my records to see that I bought S&P500 ETFs VUSD and LSPU on 27, 30, 31 March and 1 April. 

Wednesday, 29 April 2026

My AUD investments finally paying off?

 



I had posted in 2017 about Australia and Norway markets being possible commodity proxies. As I pointed out, backtesting shows a meaningful correlation between the Australia stock market and DBB which is the Invesco Base Metals fund. I am also a regular visitor to Australia and my visits to Perth show that the mining driven economy is booming with new business parks (logistics etc) being created near the airport. I took the opportunity during my last visit to drive through these new business parks to see whether they were just empty shells or whether there were lorries going to and fro. 

It is therefore no surprise that the AUD hit a 2-year high recently and shows no signs of stopping. This is good news as it also suggests good demand from China for industrial metals and other exports.

Coincidentally, I bought more ASX ETF IOZ on 7 and 8 April, just as the currency was starting to ramp up. So this brought my capital gain from the increase in the ASX200 and the currency appreciation.

I continue to be bullish on Australia (hence my belief in Fraser's Logistics Trust which has significant Oz exposure).



Monday, 20 April 2026

Vomero 18 Coffee Bean: S$99

 


NVO and NKE are competing to be my portfolio's "biggest loser." At the same time, I believe in them. Nike keeps to making stuff that I actually want to buy (and actually use for running). The Nike Vomero 18 is a cushioned and comfortable shoe that is ideal for easy runs. Most importantly, it fits my feet well (crucial to try before buying). The Vomero 17 and Invincible 3 (it would be called Vomero Premium 17 under the current Nike naming convention) had heel lock problems.

So when I saw the special edition Vomero 18 "Coffee Bean" (yes it comes in the usual Nike cardboard box plus a metallic coffee bean bag) on sale for S$99, I couldn't resist and grabbed myself a pair. 

Asics, on the other hand, seems to launch shoes with attractive colorways, then later on, makes only the monochromatic and boring colorways available. Take the current colours of the Megablast for example....

FIRE Lifestyle: Food Reviews


Blog Labels

I have decided to better organise my blog by using labels. From work, I know that maintaining and updating metadata is tedious so I am just starting with a couple of simple labels

  • FIRE Lifestyle: For my travel, food, and other posts about how someone who is Financially Independent spends his money
  • Credit Cards: My own experiences with Credit Cards 
  • Health & Fitness: Health is Wealth!
  • No Label: Probably everything else pertaining to my investments



Gyukatsu or beef cutlet is just lovely. When in Kyoto, I am more of a fan of Gyukatsu Kyoto Katsugyu because of their wider selection of cuts of meat compared to Gyukatsu Motomura which is more 'mass market'. Do note that not all menu items are Japanese beef. They also use Australian beef. That's why my go-to order is the Wagyu Sirloin which is Kuroge Wagyu beef. 

The beef already comes prepared medium-rare, so you just press it briefly on the hot plate to make it medium and a bit warmer. I have seen so many Westerners just put the cutlets on the hot plate for ages as they seem to only take their beef well done. One American group recently asked the waiter to relight the fire as they had been cooking the beef for so long the fire had gone out!

I have tried the Singapore version at One Holland Village and the beef was strangely not as good. I have eaten at a Kyoto outlet 3 times in the last 9 months so I still have a good "memory" of what is good Gyukatsu.







Tonkatsu on the other hand, is pretty good in Singapore, with Iberico pork options roughly comparable to premium Japanese pork. On the other hand, the traditional high temperature cooking doesn't allow you to taste the subtleties between different types of pork. "White" Tonkatsu  are pork cutlets cooked at a low temperature which makes the meat look "white."  

Because the cutlets are cooked on the spot at low temps, it takes 20minutes so it probably won't be viable in Singapore where high rents mean you really need to move products quickly.  Also, they need to be certified pathogen free (Japan has pathogen free certification).

Hakkinton Pork comes from Iwate Prefecture and has more fine muscle fibres and you can experience the chewy texture. First-timers that want softer meat can go for Hayashi Pork from Chiba prefecture. (I've taken both types and like both).

Price-wise, its still cheaper than Wagyu Gyukatsu. As for regular Tonkatsu, I actually quite like Matsunoya's 800+yen 'fast food' Tonkatsu or if I want ambience, then Katsukura in Kyoto. (not to be confused with local Tonkatsu chain Katsuya).






Finally, Kobe Beef and A5 Wagyu in general. As I want to keep my cholesterol down, I generally avoid eating steak in Singapore and eat steak when I visit Japan (3-4 times a year). Since I eat steak so rarely, I want to make it count and not spend my 'saturated fat' quota on cheap coffeeshop steak but on something good.

A5 Wagyu served Teppanyaki style is great. You get the experience of a chef preparing the meal for you and what is usually pretty good ambience if you choose a nice restaurant. If you eat steak rarely, make it count.

While eating in Mouriya in Kobe was a very nice experience, I don't actually find Kobe beef to be that fantastic (sacrilege?). The meat is softer and more tender, but is it also a question of fat content? I am honestly totally ok with regular high quality A5 Wagyu served in a nice setting (actually Mouriya also serves regular A5, not just Kobe beef, but if one goes to Mouriya, might as well go for the Kobe beef?)





Monday, 13 April 2026

3070.HK AI guided portfolio reorganisation


   


I have a large position in First State Regional China using CPFIS since the GFC. In 2008, there were not many options for CPFIS. Most of my money went to STI ETF but since I wanted to diversify, unit trusts with FSMOne seemed to be the only option. Due to inertia and the fact that I can't use my CPF for anything else, I have left it there. As long as it returned more than CPF interest, I guess I am content. 

However, as I have reached the 50 year milestone, CPF is looking more like 'real money' that has to be managed properly.  I am looking at an 80/20 allocation of equities/fixed income-near cash and CPF at age 50 is pretty close to cash, maybe equivalent to a 5-year fixed deposit?

At the end of the day, Martin Lau, the famous fund manager for First State, is not getting any younger and its inevitable that someone will have to replace him. Given the 1.73% expense ratio of the fund, it's time to take steps to exit. Should have done it earlier, but better late than never.

This means that I will sell the fund and the cash is refunded into CPF-OA, while I use my cash to buy a China focused ETF to replace it. I told Claude.AI what I was holding, including another existing dividend ETF 3110 and asked it about 3070 and to generate various comparison tables and analyse their holdings. Given that 3070 and 3110 most interestingly do not duplicate each other (their top 10 holdings are totally different), Claude concluded that they are complementary.





While 3070 has a slightly higher expense ratio of 0.77% compared to 3110's 0.68%, its manageable and 3070 holds the Chinese Banks whereas 3110 seems to be focused on industrials, and I am always a fan of financials (even though China banks may be called upon to do national service by bailing out State Owned Enterprises). The infographic above shows the reasonable P/E (the 'SOE effect'?) but more importantly the totally reasonable dividend payout ratio which implies that dividends will be sustainable.

So I am gradually selling my First State Regional China bit by bit and buying mainly 3070 but I will increase my monthly RSP of 3010 and 3110 as well.



Wednesday, 8 April 2026

Time in Market > Market Timing

 


Just recording today's headlines as an illustration of why time in market > market timing. As I have mentioned in my earlier posts on crash buying, I started buying the moment the market started moving downwards. It is impossible to time the bottom so those influenzas who have been advocating waiting for a big crash will probably have missed the boat, or at least missed the 5%+ upswing in one week. And as the previous studies have shown, missing the initial market upswing greatly reduces one's total returns, hence the saying time in market > market timing.

Sometimes it also helps to be lucky. Thanks to the Astrea 6 redemption proceeds of $50k+, I am deployed more cash into equities than I would normally have done.



Thursday, 2 April 2026

Dividends Collected: March 2026

 


Dividends collected YTD ahead of 2024 and 2025. The key test will be how much I collect this month versus 2024 when I collected 25k.

Wednesday, 1 April 2026

April 2026: Holidays and a relief rally.

 




Advance Holiday Planning Bears fruit.

I have gone for my first Japan trip of 2026 though it was too early to see Sakura. I still enjoyed. My next trip in April will be after the peak Sakura season on a redemption ticket (redeemed during the sale) but there should be some left to see (I was also in Japan in mid April 2025). Thereafter, I have 3 more trips to Japan and Australia. Since I have booked/redeemed/paid for all the tickets, I fortunately do not have to pay the additional fuel surcharges that have since been introduced. I also wonder if the fuel surcharges will reduce the number of tourists visiting Japan but I'm not so confident of that because of the substitution effect. Many in the region may not want to fly to Europe because of the increased cost and/or perceived risks, and may choose to fly to Japan instead.

Hopefully the situation and prices will stabilise soon, because I still need to book  a couple more year-end holidays. 


Relief Rally? TACO?

Trump as expected TACO and announced that the war will end in a few weeks, which triggered a relied rally. I bought on Monday S&P500 ETFs listed in London before the US market opened and rallied hard. Notwithstanding that jump, I bought more today. As I have mentioned before, I feel that if my warchest is of a healthy size, I shouldn't stop buying the moment the market turned. Even though the price is going up, it is still lower/same as early March so I should still buy more because the market should be up further than today at end 2026.


Saturday, 28 March 2026

Endowment Fund

 


ST Reference: Endowment Fund

TL:DR, a Doctor in her will gave $2m to a charity to set up an endowment fund. ST explains that:

An endowment fund is a pool of donations that organisations, such as universities and charities, invest for long-term financial support. The initial sum is preserved, and only the returns are used by the organisation.


I am posting this here for my reference so I don't lose this link as the idea of an endowment fund where the principal is forever preserved and you spend only the returns is obviously attractive to me and matches my own investment/retirement strategy of only living off my passive income.

What I found interesting was that this couple was obviously passionate about charity and had very little spending needs. Why did she wait till death to start giving away her $20m fortune? One hint can be found in this part:

The couple, who had no children, owned properties in Singapore and overseas. Despite their significant assets, Mr Chia said his wife lived frugally so their money could be used to help others.

They saved and invested their sizeable incomes in illiquid properties. So they probably had modest liquid assets suitable to their frugal lifestyles but a lot of property wealth. It may be a stereotype but the elderly seem to find it really difficult to 'sell property' (whether to downsize to a smaller more appropriate home or otherwise). So have to wait until they pass away before the property is sold.  

Friday, 27 March 2026

March 2026 Crash Strategy Part 2

 



Dow and Nasdaq are in correction territory, but S&P500 not yet. As I mentioned in my earlier post, I have been spending my $50k+ Astrea VI refund last week to buy various counters, so my main 'warchest' is still intact and ready to be used once S&P500 also hits correction territory, maybe next week. Because my bank accounts have daily fund transfer limits, I am going to do some fund transfers over the weekend so that my trading accounts will be ready for action on Monday.

I don't discount the possibility of Trump trying to make some sort of announcement to soothe the market, but the market might ignore it, especially with S&P 500 valuations still on the richer side.

I bought some ON Holdings because the price crashed so I am even more exposed to the sportswear market. But my main buys will be VWRD and VUSD/LSPU ETFs. I will probably initiate a position in Amazon next week since the price has corrected. As the saying goes, buy what you know (at a good price) and I have Amazon Prime and buy quite a lot of stuff on Amazon.


Thursday, 26 March 2026

CPF account check

I have used some of my CPF to invest since 2008. By far the largest item I have purchased is STI ETF, which has done well of late and has been giving regular 3.5%+ dividends every year, which is higher than the 2.5% CPF-OA interest rate. I also have 3 unit trusts, all by First State: Bridge, Asia Growth, and Regional China, and 2 stocks in CPF: Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Comfort Delgro

Back in 2008, there weren't many options and I used unit trusts to diversify, otherwise I would be SG concentrated with STI ETF and stocks. If I had to start all over again, it doesn't make sense to buy any product with more than 1% expense ratio, but inertia has prevented me from doing house-keeping of my CPFIS account.

For 2026, my resolution is to reorganise my CPF holdings and to exit these high cost unit trusts which have done their job in that their CAGR is well above the CPF 2.5% interest rate. So before I clean up my CPF investments, I did a calculation of my CPF total: OA+SA+MA+CPFIS:  $1.68m.




Monday, 23 March 2026

March 2026 crash strategy

 



Iran-related anxieties caused a market crash but you can always count on Trump to TACO and say things to soothe the market (insiders who have advance knowledge of what Trump is going to tweet will probably be very wealthy this year).

The problem of course is that you can't stop a war you started simply by making positive statements on twitter. So I still expect some downside, but not very much.

I continue to purchase VWRD and bought some FLCT today at $0.905, in order to use up some of the $50k+ refund I got from the Astrea VI PE Bond. My Astrea VI yield on cost was 4.4%+ so it was really good value. While the short-sighted were celebrating getting 3%+ on 6-mth T-bills (which rolled over at 2%), those with a medium term perspective would have realised that Astrea VI at the midpoint of its maturity with a half-filled reserves account and 4.4%+ yield, was a way better invesment.

I also started an RSP of the LSE-listed JP Morgan Global Equities Premium Income Active ETF (JEPG).  It has a reasonable management fee of 0.35% for an active ETF and generates income by holding stocks and using an options overlay. As an Income ETF, it holds primarily value stocks rather than the Mag7. But interesting, it also has counters like Berkshire (0 dividend) in its top 10 holdings. Presumably it holds Berkshire and earns from writing Berkshire options.

I am not supposed to increase the number of counters I hold but technically since Astrea VI was redeemed, I can add one new counter to my portfolio. 😀












Sunday, 15 March 2026

First experience doing RSP of LSE-listed ETF on FSMOne

 


This post documents my first experience with doing an RSP of an LSE-listed ETF on FSMOne
  • $0 fees
  • The ETF opened at $356.60, so price of $356.90 I suppose is reasonable. It closed eventually at $357.75
  • Exchange rate was 1.27099.  The opening and closing rates that day were 1.2663 and 1.2662. So the forex premium is an estimated 0.37%

This FX premium is consistent with my experience with HK$ ETFs. It seems that the forex premium if you use S$ to pay for the RSP and ask FSMOne to convert is always a little bit higher. If you convert the US$ or HK$ yourself, the forex premium is closer to 0.25%. 

But overall, 0.37% forex premium is still much better than SCB's forex premium (SCB used to be better but now its like 0.7% until you hit silver tier when it drops to 0.4%).




Friday, 13 March 2026

Michael Burry on the Hong Kong Stock Market

 



Someone in HWZ shared Michael Burry's (The Big Short) post on the Hang Seng Index. 

Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy - by Michael Burry


When I clicked on it, I could read the whole article, but now it seems that most of it is behind a paywall. Anyway, to summarise, the point appears to be that even though the HSI crashed due to various reasons including political ones, the fundamentals and more importantly earnings of HSI companies remained sound and the HSI kept on paying good dividends throughout the crash.

Therefore, a value investor's investment thesis would still be intact, subject to the caveat that the market can remain irrational for longer than an investor can remain liquid. But assuming that you did not use leverage, you could just keep calm and collect dividends.




Friday, 6 March 2026

Comparison

 


Some say comparison is the thief of joy, but sometimes you are discovering someone whose numbers are so close to yours, you wonder "are you me?" The famous sunglass wearing blogger just posted his 2025 CPF balance and passive income and the figures are really close to mine. So my reaction was one of amusement and whimsy. So without further ado, here's a comparison table for entertainment purposes.

On a more serious finance-related note, I see that he will be choosing ERS since he is turning 55. It will eventually be my turn to choose. Currently, my thinking is to go for FRS and to invest the difference between FRS and ERS. Based on my parents' health and genes which I have inherited, I should be mentally active for 20++ years so no problem doing DIY investment.  DIY investing will also keep my mind active and help fight against dementia. 

After 20 years (age 75), I should hopefully have 4x my investment, in which case, if I put that sum into some high-yielding fund, I should be getting a lot more than FRS payouts.

Monday, 2 March 2026

Dividends Collected: Feb 2026

 


SG stocks hardly any dividends in Jan, and curiously US dividends, hardly any in Feb. The good news is that for the first 2 months of the year, dividends are higher year-on-year vs 2024 and 205.

Sunday, 1 March 2026

Comfort Delgro and Capitaland Ascott Update


In 2022, I posted that I was still buying Capitaland Ascott Residence Trust and Comfort Delgro and was looking forward to an EPS recovery:  

BuyafterCrash: Singapore Stocks I am still buying

 

ComfortDelgro's EPS got hit bad by COVID.


Fast forward 3 years later to 2025, we can see CDG's EPS continuing to recover with the latest being an EPS of 10.43. This is still lower than pre-COVID. If you are an optimist it just means that CDG still has further room to grow its EPS to pre-COVID levels. If you are a pessimist it means that CDG's management hasn't executed its strategy as well as it should have as we should be back to pre-COVID EPS by now (especially with inflation baked-in).


Finally, it's good to see CDG stating its dividend policy, which is 80% of PATMI. A reasonable number, given that it is a cash rich company. I am happy with my current holdings of CDG and won't buy more. My plan is just to hold it for the long term and collect dividend.


_____________________

As for Capitaland Ascott, I can't find a handy table, but the earnings per stapled security (diluted) are:

2019: 8.99 cents
2020: -7.69 cents
2021: 9.32 cents
2022: 6.25 cents
2023: 6.07 cents
2024: 5.95 cents
2025: 8.07 cents

So ART is slowly recovering as well, but still not back to pre-COVID levels.



Friday, 27 February 2026

Buy After Crash Strategy

 

I started my blog in 2016 and named it Buy After Crash, because that was how I started my investing journey around the time of the GFC. 

During GFC and again in 2016 and again during COVID 2020, STI was also under 3,000 due to a 'crash', and as I documented in my blog, I was happy to buy STI as long as it was under 3,000.

Recently, in the influenza sphere, there appears to be some influenzas creating a "fake dispute" about buying after crash strategy. I don't follow these influenzas so I depend on blogs I actually read to keep me updated:

Investment Income for Life: Mr Loo Strikes Back At Kelvin Learns Investing and Boon Tee on Crash Buying Strategy!

Finance Opti: Lump Sum vs. DCA vs. Crash Buying??


Since my blog is named Buy After Crash, I think I should weigh in with my strategy. Its so simple there is no need for multiple long-form youtube videos to describe it. I guess thats why you need to create a "disagreement" so that there is material for a youtube long-form video.

The starting point for me is to have the correct Asset Allocation that matches your risk profile. As a simplification, we could divide assets into equities and cash/near-cash/investment grade fixed income. It could be 50/50, 70/30 or 100/0. I think I'm around 80/20 or higher. 

With the correct asset allocation, you sleep well at night because your portfolio has a certain amount of risk that is aligned with your risk profile. Assuming your risk profile remains constant, portfolio risk could go up or down.

When markets crash and equities become cheaper, I feel that the risk of holding more equities goes down 

(1) From a valuation perspective. There is more upside from undervalued stocks.

(2) From a historical perspective, as the long term market trend is up.

This means that even if my risk profile is the same, I should be willing to buy more equities during a crash, over and above mere 'rebalancing.' So every time the market corrects, I tap on my cash/near-cash/fixed income portfolio of my portfolio to buy more equities.

If you are 50/50 or 80/20, it's simple to tap on your spare cash to buy equities. If you are 100/0, this means you have to use leverage/margin to buy more equities, which has a cost and the market may be irrational for longer than you are solvent. So crash buying when you have a 100/0 allocation is still possible, but perhaps more difficult. 

I wonder if those influenzas who like to discuss crash buying have actually showed how they invested/traded during various crashes. My blog documents what I did during the 2016 and 2020 crashes (and also Trump's liberation day not-really-a-crash). This is for my reference so I can learn how to improve. Like I posted before, I identified one weakness in buying only during the downward phase of the crash and not buying during the early recovery phase (because of the fear of dead cat bounce). But Historically, prices during dead cat bounces were still attractive and you would have still made money buying during dead cat bounces.


Thursday, 26 February 2026

UOB Krisflyer fee waiver

 




The credit card annual fee will appear in the bill for the month after the month printed on the card. Once it appears, you have to go to the UOB App to apply for waiver. After submitting the waiver, I got an automatic response that it was waived. 

The fact that it was immediately waived suggests that there is some sort of preset criteria, and the simplest criteria would be annual spend. From an IT perspective, its not cost effective (within the context of a super secure banking system) to do some sort of multi-factorial algorithm that pulls data from all sorts of places to decide whether to waive or not. 

As a data point, I think my spending on this card is about $1k a month, so good to know that is sufficient to get a waiver.



Wednesday, 25 February 2026

Down US$41k in NVO, but portfolio up 6 figures

 


I am currently down US$41k in NVO so I have to concede that it is one of my worst investing mistakes. 

However, diversification has saved me and my portfolio is up 6-figures in the first 2 months of the year, so that's not bad. Unlike those influenzas that only like to show their winning trades, the reality is that you win some and you lose some - just try to have more winners than losers.

In other news, ETHA has spiked up and this might be the start of a V-shaped recovery. I will ride the wave up and exit at $20+ like I did the last time.

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

Sold Vodafone, bought some ETHA & JD.com

 







Telecos are usually not considered growth stocks. The industry requires enormous upfront capital expenditure (eg: to set up 5G network) and shareholders get rewarded by a steady income stream from the investment. Over the last year, Vodafone has gone up faster than Singtel (though the US$ depreciation means the gap isn't as wide as the chart implies). 

Last night, I decided to start selling my Vodafone ADRs and some of my sell orders 'hit'. At the same time, I have re-initiated a position in ETHA averaging about $17.00 and started adding to JD

Obviously, the timing is bad as ETHA closed at $16.34 last night, but I am preparing to average down a bit and sell more Vodafone to fund this. 



Tuesday, 3 February 2026

Experience in clearing SQ redemption waitlist

 



I was thinking of a Gold Coast holiday in June. Unfortunately, that only coincides with the June school holidays so prices are higher and there are no Business Saver Awards but you can put yourself on a waitlist. I decided to try out putting myself on a waitlist for business class saver redemption ticket (72,000 miles) for a desirable red-eye flight to maximise the time I have there, and 7 hour flight is just enough to sleep on the plane. Flights to Japan a bit too short for a good sleep.

About a month later, I get an e-mail with the nondescript message "Ticketing time limit" which meant that the waitlist had cleared and I can redeem the biz class ticket I had waitlisted. I had to pay taxes/fees of about $100 over and above the 72,000 miles but it still beats buying the ticket.

For the return to Singapore, I selected an afternoon flight and redeemed an economy class ticket (no need to waitlist, all available), since a 7 hours day flight is just about manageable.

While it is pretty likely that PPS members get priority waitlist clearance, I don't even have Krisflyer Gold at the moment so it's pretty nice that I still managed to clear the waitlist for a school holidays flight. I plan to try to book my October holiday through the waitlist method as well.








Monday, 2 February 2026

3010.HK ETF First chips, now India

 


Just last month, I talked about how I have been buying 3010.HK to gain exposure to the India stock market, just in case India benefits from the China tariffs, but ended up benefiting because the ETF holds a lot of TSMC as well as Korean chip companies. With the US announcing a trade deal with India last night, we should see a decent rally in India stock prices.



In other news, I bought a bit of ETHA just to do some trading during the crypto crash. I've talked about my Gold & Silver holdings a little but I'm not interested in accumulating more. It seems that there is a disconnect between the physical market and the paper market (which might be seeing some manipulation).





Friday, 30 January 2026

Good start to the New Year

 



The first month of the year has flown past. A 3.95% gain and beating the S&P500 is nice. I will be happy with a high single-digit gain in 2026. I think a correction of some sort is inevitable and will give me the opportunity to deploy some spare cash or even CPF-OA.


Silver

The last trading day of the month was significant with a 25.5% one day correction in silver. Which to me seems totally reasonable since Silver prices had gotten out of touch with reality. With the amount of derivatives out there, who knows whether there was a 'pump and dump' performed by hidden actors, especially since commodities are traded on different exchanges and under different regulators.



Can day traders beat algos?

I'm always on the lookout for investment books to borrow at the NLB and came across this book Flash Crash. Highly entertaining (I have already read Flash Boys and Dark Pools, also available from NLB and highly recommended) look at HFT and algorithmic trading, in this case, spoofing of S&P e-minis. Hence I wonder if the recent Gold/Silver price moves involved predatory algorithms (now powered by AI) trading with each other. 




Monday, 26 January 2026

No more TACO trade?

 



The headline says it all. Trump threatens tariffs against Korea. Korea market hits record high. If the market is now ignoring tariff threats the TACO trade is no more....

Wednesday, 21 January 2026

TACO

 





Barely one day after threatening tariffs, Trump walks back his tariff threats. At least I bought VUSD and some Lion Global All Seasons fund.


Tuesday, 20 January 2026

Finally a Dip in the market

 


It took more threats by Trump of Greenland-related Tariffs to cause a market dip which is of course a buying opportunity. I bought VUSD last night and will continue buying throughout the week. Hopefully the market doesn't reverse too quickly.

This is obviously a "TACO" trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) and I'm not sure he has a sound basis for imposing tariffs (they will of course make something up).