Covid19 Crash

In my last post I thought I was done buying for the month, but the market has gone into correction mode. STI is still above 3,000 at end February, but I am preparing for it to go this level next week.

I have been buying a little bit of various counters this week, but at the same time sticking on my resolution to focus on ETFs, so more or less from Tue to Friday I have been adding small amounts of WQDV & VHYD via Stanchart.

I have added Sembcorp and Comfort Delgro as they both went under $2. While Sembcorp continues to freefall, Comfort Delgro's price is more resilient, underscoring its defensive qualities. European banks/financials also look attractive and I picked up more LLOY, Aviva, ING, and SAN. As the FTSE100 itself looks attractive, I added VUKE. Going forward, I think I should focus on VUKE instead of individual UK stocks.

If markets continue to fall next week and STI goes below 3,000, it would be fair to say that this is the sale that I have been waiting for. I will draw up a plan to buy at STI ETF at $2.99, $2.89, $2.79 and so on, probably exhausting funds at $2.00.

I'm using the same spreadsheet on google docs that I used in 2008-2009, so I can see my earlier workbooks recording my buying decisions then. Of course a few things have changed since 2008-2009:

• I have cheap access to foreign stocks via IBKR, SCB, FSMOne
• I have built up my passive income and paid off my housing loan, giving me a measure of financial security.
• My CPF funds have grown since then, providing an emergency warchest.

Strategy: Feb 2020

It isn't mid-February yet but I have continued my buying. In particular, I am looking at ramping up my position in Shell (B Shares). Shell price went down because of poor results but the investment thesis seems intact. The oil and gas sector is likely to be disrupted but I believe that Shell is in a good position to transition into an energy company (we'll always need energy even if we might not always need oil) rather than an oil company that dabbles in other types of energy.

I bought WQDV at the start of the month and just bought VHYD. So I'm glad I manage to stick to my plan to regularly DCA these 2 ETFs monthly. My 2800.HK RSP with FSMOne seems to be working. The account indicates that the RSP money has been put on hold but the units have not been delivered to the account yet, I guess that occurs after T+3.

Apart from this, I added a little bit of Sembcorp, Frasers HT, Comfort Delgro, and HSBC.

While N-Cov will certainly have an impact on earnings on companies in affected countries, the market is not crashing, perhaps buoyed by the US market which seems to keep on going up. While there is no sudden crash, a stock market adjustment to lower earnings (and likely lower dividends) should logically be inevitable, once there is a clearer idea of how badly earnings are affected.

So while I will occasionally top up small amounts of SG shares, my focus will be international shares and ETFs. I'll still buy STI ETF if it drops below $3, but I'm not counting on it. 

Dividends: Jan 2020

I report iShares/Vanguard Quarterly dividends in Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct for consistency. Some years the dividend is in late Dec, some years its in early Jan.

HK$ and A$ dividends also paid out in Jan but I follow previous practice in only graphing the 3 top currencies and subsequently, the total value in S$ terms.

Jan 2019 dividend was slightly higher due to a US$489 BHP special dividend. Excluding this special dividend, Jan 2020 saw a small dividend increase.