Norway and Australia as possible Commodity Proxies?

I actually attended a FSM dinner seminar (the dinner was good) where the speaker was asked how whether the fund he was managing invested in commodities like oil. His replied that if he wanted to be long oil, he would buy Krone and Rubles and if he was short oil, he would just sell Krone and Rubles.  In other words, there was no need to deal with contango and backwardation which come with dealing in oil contracts.  This made me wonder whether the equity market had a reasonable correlation with oil and I discovered that there was some correlation. Also, some reports indicated that the Norweigian stock market had reasonable valuations so I added NORW as (an imperfect) proxy to oil.


www.etfscreen.com

EWA - Australia
EWS - Singapore
SPY - USA
NORW - Norway

DBA - agriculture
DBB - base metals
DBC - commodities


Which of the 4 equity markets has the highest correlation to DBC - Norway

Which of the 4 equity markets has the highest correlation to DBB - Australia

Which of the 4 equity markets has the highest correlation to DBA - Norway (not a significant correlation).

Correlation is an additional tool that the asset allocating investor should use. By itself it doesn't tell you whether the market is undervalued or overvalued. It also doesn't tell you which one will go up more. However, I will pick the one that gives more dividends :D


Bonus round, correlation of NORW, XLE and USO. The correlation is also significant:

July 2017: Strategy Report

Strategy for July 2017. Generally stocks are overvalued so my warchest is growing every month. Nevertheless, it is risky to time the market so regular DCA should still be done. 

CDLHT rights issue. $10k worth of rights to be subscribed to.

Comfort Delgro: Accumulated downwards from $2.30 to $2.24

GlaxoSmithKline: Accumulated more on dip. Global stock, not concerned about Brexit.

VOD: Small amount added.

RoyalMail: I also find it tempting to buy stocks that have been hit hard. RMG does have a decent core business and I doubt the share price will go to zero. Still, the risk is there but the dividends look good even if cut.

WPP: Initiated position: International revenue/ large cap stock / price down by more than 20% due to negative forward outlook / good dividends and dividend coverage / good forward P/E.

Dividend Report: June 2017

Mid-year report shows a decent increase in dividends collect. I am on my way to increasing my dividend payout by 10% this year.



Average dividends per month: Jan- June 2017

S$3514.72           [2016: $3193.08]
£187.12              [2016: £110.74]
US$423.21           [2016: $129.10]





Average dividends per month: Jan- May 2017

S$3278.75     +   [2016: $3144.35]
£168.16        -    [2016: £102.95]
US$500.177   +   [2016: $140.82] 











Notes:

Average dividend per month = total dividend collected / number of months in the year so far.+ and - are used to indicate whether the average monthly dividend has gone up or gone down.Vanguard quarterly dividends reported on Jan/April/Jul/Oct

Dividend Report: May 2017

Lots of dividend payouts this month. However, not much difference compared to last year for S$ payouts. The fruits of my IBKR investing are paying off as US$ dividends have increased significantly.



Average dividends per month: Jan- May 2017

S$3278.75     +   [2016: $3144.35]
£168.16        -    [2016: £102.95]
US$500.177   +   [2016: $140.82] 

Average dividends per month: Jan- Apr 2017

S$2,494.69      [2016: $2,449.32]
£210.20           [2016: £128.68]
US$382.56       [2016: $153.04]












Notes:

Average dividend per month = total dividend collected / number of months in the year so far.+ and - are used to indicate whether the average monthly dividend has gone up or gone down.Vanguard quarterly dividends reported on Jan/April/Jul/Oct