Lower inflation and rate cuts

The rate cuts are happening, but more importantly, weaker inflation has been reported in the Eurozone and the UK. I have started to deploy my excess U$ into iShares 0-1 Treasury  Bond ETF (IBTU) since there doesn't seem to be anywhere else to park the cash.  US$ stock prices are scary with new all time highs being reached every day it seems.

Short term US Treasuries seem safer than US equities at the moment and the current yield is reasonable with the website reporting YTM to be 4.6%. Furthermore, any price changes are likely to be to the upside rather than the downside.

However, as I have said in the past, I should not underestimate the US market, so I will continue regular DCA of VWRD / VUSD and other ETFs, but like many others, I wonder when is the next (inevitable) correction?

Finally, I'm more in holiday mode at the moment with a couple of short trips lined up, so I don't plan to do any day trading for the rest of the year, unless something exciting happens...

Flying Economy with Krisflyer Gold

 

I am a beginner when it comes to the miles game. I only have a small amount of work-related travel and the miles I earn are not enough to qualify for anything. However, after reaching FI, I have started to take business class flights so that I can get better sleep on the plane (allows for better quality workouts on landing, versus needing to get over jetlag before you exercise). My business class miles + work trip miles finally got me to Krisflyer Gold.

After taking my first economy class flight on Krisflyer Gold, I think there are advantages where the departing airport is not Changi. Changi is so efficient I don't even bother to do business class check-in - its faster to just self-service check-in and bag drop.

However, for flight from Kansai which is full of tourists and long queues. Krisflyer Gold turned out to be useful.  First of all, I could get past the extremely long economy check-in queue, and thereafter to get into the priority security queue and avoid yet another long queue. The JAL Sakura lounge was crowded (all the Star Alliance Gold members will go there) but not too bad. Boarding was nice as I could board early (after the PPS members) and get my stuff into the overhead luggage. The one area I did not take advantage of was the 40kg economy luggage allowance. I don't go overseas for shopping and I think my check-in luggage was under 10kg. On the other hand I can see that many Singaporeans love going to Japan to shop....

I should try to fly more SQ economy while I still have Krisflyer Gold, rather than try to requalify by flying business. After it expires, then maybe I will consider flying more business to quality again. I am looking forward to the SQ "Time to Fly" sale to book a few more short regional holidays.

Dividends Collected: Sep 2024

 

On target for 200k.

REITS: Capitaland Int Comm Trust Rights issue

 

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust held a rights offering of 56 units for every 1000 held. I applied for my allocation and for excess rights that was about 3x my allocation, thinking that was pretty optimistic. 

Surprisingly, the valid acceptances of the rights offering was pretty low at 82.0%. This is despite the strength of the Capitaland brand name and the quality of their portfolio. This meant that I got all the excess that I subscribed for.

As a result, my CICT position is large enough to qualify as a 'medium-sized' holding though I will only update my portfolio page at the end of the year.

REIT rally?

The 5-year chart of CLR ETF is informative. It shows just how far REITs have fallen and the recent rally is only a small recovery. If further FED rates cuts are not forthcoming (i.e. slower or smaller than market anticipates), there will still be some volatility. 

On the other hand, a value investor is more concerned with the fundamentals and whether people want to rent units in the buildings the REITs own, and whether customers (for retail/hospitality), went to visit those premises.

Even HK/China is rallying.

 As I have previously noted in my portfolio page, the China market crash downgraded my 2800.HK from 'large' to 'medium.' Given the huge uncertainty with China, I decided to continue to hold and add small amounts every month via the FSMOne RSP.

The patient RSP of China/HK ETFs may have finally borne fruit with the China/HK market finally making a noticeable upward move. The effect of the RSP was to lower my average buying price for the ETFs and thus make it easier to breakeven. If dividends are excluded, I still haven't broken even for 2801 and 2800 yet (green for 3010), but this week's rally helped me get closer to breakeven.

From the graph, the extreme correlation between 2800.HK and 2801.HK continues.

NKE pressed buy instead of sell (need more practice)

 

With the sudden rally of NKE which seemed to coincide with the announcement of a new CEO, I decided to exit my NKE position for the 2nd time with a plan to rebuy in the future if price dropped.  Good to close position early on Friday so that I can enjoy Friday night and the rest of the weekend.

Instead of keying in a sell order of $87, I keyed in a buy order of $87, which was promptly filled at $86.80. I immediately keyed in a correct sell order at $87 which fortunately was filled. So maybe my 'mistake' netted me a few extra dollars.

Sold some Singtel

 

3000 @ 3.33 has a nice ring to it. As I mentioned in my previous post, I have added a HK/China dividend ETF to my FSMOne RSP 3110.HK. In addition, I plan to deploy cash from Singtel into 3110.HK.

It's true many are saying that China/HK stocks are a deathtrap, but when it comes to dividend stocks, a lot of them are slow and steady businesses such as the banks which are essentially "Govt-linked companies." There hasn't been any regulator crackdowns on the big Chinese banks for good reasons. 

On the other hand, SIngtel's sudden rise to $3.33 may not be justified by fundamentals, and given the pretty sad price performance of the counter, I can probably rebuy these 3000 shares cheaper when it corrects.