Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Strategy Report: Post-US Exit

No catchy title for this event? 

In last month's Mid-October Strategy report, I mentioned continuing to DCA STI ETF ES3 @ $2.85. In the last 10 years, I had one rule for ES3: If under $3, continue DCA, if above $3, use money for other things (just nice that I had housing loan to pay off - no lock-in / no partial prepayment penalty).

With STI going below 2,800 again, I continued my monthly DCA with ES3 @ $2.83. Like I've mentioned many times, I got lots of practice averaging down. But ES3 at $2.85 or $2.83, I have no problems doing DCA at those levels. If it went below $2.80 I would consider using some of my CPF.

After SG markets closed, I was wondering whether we would get BREXIT-type discounts when the Atlantic markets opened but it was not to be so I didn't buy anything. While the futures looked impressively scary, the actual markets were not really down much and eventually reversed.

More fundamentally, rate hike and inflation expectations may have changed. I wonder if this was part of the reason for the rally in the 2 out of 3 of the insurers I am vested in. AV and PUK have a lot more international focus than LGEN:
  • AV       +4.36%
  • PUK     +5.72%
  • LGEN   -0.45%

There is no reason to believe that the volatility is over as there are many opportunities for mis-steps and mistakes. For example, the nomination of the correct people to his economic team is probably crucial. For foreign policy, I guess that whoever he nominates will have to work with Boris Johnson across the Atlantic....

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